Algorithm reveals which team’s fans are most hopelessly optimistic by measuring ticket demand versus Vegas projections
San Francisco, CA – May 2, 2019 (PRNewswire) StubHub, the world’s largest event marketplace, today introduced the StubHub Fan Optimism Index, a tool that uncovers which sports fans are the most optimistic by looking at ticket trends and Vegas projections. Applied to NFL fans in the wake of the draft, Cleveland Brown fans were found to have the highest hopes ahead of the season.
StubHub’s first Fan Optimism Index is a measurement tool that compares the difference between the number of wins that fans are expecting, based on their ticket purchases, against the Las Vegas projections for the upcoming season. Vegas over/unders are strongly correlated with justifiable results, while fan buying behavior is seemingly biased. By calculating the difference between these data sets, StubHub is able to determine what fans bases are the most optimistic.
“There are seemingly endless amounts of stats analyzing team and player projections, but StubHub wanted to create a formula to tap into fan optimism – something that has been difficult to put numbers against until now,” said Akshay Khanna, General Manager of NFL at StubHub. “What we found proves fans’ hopes for their team’s season are not impacted by hard stats of any sort. After all, none of the teams with the ‘most optimistic’ fan bases made the playoffs last year.”
“There is a unique challenge in devising a formula to show something as immeasurable as fan expectation,” said Ben Alamar, former ESPN analyst and current Head of Business Analytics at StubHub. “What we did to measure this emotion was relate fans’ buying behavior to their belief in how many wins they expect from their team. We compared these against the Vegas projections – the higher the index score, the higher the optimism.”
According to the Fan Optimism Index, Cleveland Brown fans are the most optimistic in the NFL. Even after a 16-year playoff drought, the Browns have made moves in the offseason that have fans feeling hopeful for the upcoming season.
According to StubHub’s Fan Optimism Index, the top ten NFL teams with the most optimistic fans are:
1. Cleveland Browns
2. Washington Redskins
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New York Jets
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Buffalo Bills
8. New York Giants
9. Oakland Raiders
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Visit the StubHub Press Box here for deeper insights into the most optimistic fanbases.
About StubHub
At StubHub, our mission is to bring the joy of live to fans globally. As the world’s largest ticket marketplace spanning 44 countries, we enable fans to buy and sell tickets to tens of thousands of events, whenever and wherever fans want to be. Backed by award-winning customer care, StubHub’s FanProtect™ Guarantee means every ticket is 100 percent guaranteed valid or you’ll receive your money back or a replacement ticket of equal or better value. Our business partners include more than 150 properties globally across the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS, WWE, NCAA, Matchroom Boxing, plus Paciolan and Tessitura. StubHub provides the total end-to-end event going experience throughout the world. StubHub is an eBay company (EBAY). For more information on StubHub, visit StubHub.com or follow @StubHub on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram or LinkedIn.